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Archive for November, 2019


Solution to Hong Kong’s current Political Quagmire

Wednesday, November 13th, 2019

Hong Kong has been descended into chaos and the crisis is deepening with every passing day  and there does not seem to be an end in sight. Carrie Lam single-handedly created this mess by announcing on the 10th June 2019 that she would push through the contraversial extradition bill even though 1 million people took to the streets on the 9th June, 2019. Just yesterday, she announced on 12 November 2019 that it was "wishful thinking" that the protesters will get any of their 5 demands. Her popularity rating is now at 20 and is the lowest that any chief executive has ever been able to achieve. 

Beijing cannot back down now after 25 weeks of unrest because the communist party do not want to appear weak before its people nor to International political watchers; especially when there is an ongoing trade war with the US. The protesters and the police have been battling it out for 25 weeks with a few deaths already and over 3,000 people arrested; so the protesters' are obviously livid and will not back down until their 5 demands are met. The police will not back down now either nor will it allow the government to conduct an independent inquiry.  All sides have suffered too much and there is too proverbial water under the bridge thus the situation has escalated to a level that is very hard for any side to back down. The events have overtaken the administration and evidently Carrie Lam’s government does not have the experience nor the political ability to deal with this crisis.

As an observer of the events unravelling I see with clarity why the crisis is deepening and why Carrie Lam’s administration is woefully incapable of handling the situation. Let us look at her background, she has been a civil servant for the last 40 years with little experience in PR, little contact with the working class and therefore little knowledge of  what life is like at the bottom. 40 years in civil service has left her extremely bureaucratic and must observe with exactitude a process before a decision can be made; her secretary would form a committee, contact each member to arrange a meeting, create an agenda for the meeting, have the meeting and a few resolutions are made, minute the meeting and then perhaps second meeting to finalise the strategy and then get the PR to draft the speech and then the communication is made. This whole process may take 6 weeks. Meanwhile the protests are unravelling at a staggering speed with fluidity that flows like water; one minute they flow to Wong Tai Sin and the next they are in Sai Wan Ho; so everything that Carrie Lam’s administration is responding to is 6 weeks too late. Unfortunately for her, she likes to surround herself with yes men and sycophants who do what she tells them and any voice of dissent will be quickly stamped out.  

The protesters have lost a comrade recently who fell off a parking lot and they are demanding a full investigation and condemnation of the police violence by the university chancellor. So far, neither of these demands have happened. The protesters are becoming ever more radical and they must be appeased otherwise the situation will only get worse before it gets better.

Given this complex web of interest groups each with their own agenda, demands and bottom lines, the situation is becoming increasingly more difficult to untangle with each passing day so what is the solution? What we need now is time. Time to slow down. Time to think. Time to put place strategies to deal with the unrest. Time to heal. We don't have time. And events occurring at an extremely fast pace time is what the government does not have. Although I would like to see it but the only solution is for Carrie Lam to commit suicide; if she commits suicide then it would allow Beijing to find a replacement without losing face domestically or internationally; it would cause the protesters to rejoice and also remove a person from whom they can make their 5 demands so whilst a chief executive is being sought they would probably quieten down giving the government precious time to regroup and re-strategise. Unfortunately, the situation has reached a political impasse and the only way out is for Carrie Lam to be the sacrifical "Lam". 

  

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